Russian Miasma

Masha Lipman has another op-ed in the Washington Post today. He writes quite interesting articles and op-eds about Russia fairly regularly, and this one is no exception. The basic thrust of Lipman's op-ed is that the foundations of the current Russian political structure rest on high oil prices. High oil prices have provided the Russian elite with plenty of lucrative opportunities whilst simultaneously allowing Putin to provide social support to the less wealthy. In return, Putin has taken a more-or-less free hand in running the country.

Lipman correctly identifies a key flaw with this approach: what happens when oil prices crash like they have now? What then? To some extent this may be a temporary issue: I am sure in the not-too distant future oil prices will rise again and Putin's prefered method of governance will again become financially feasible. Of course, oil will run out at some point, but I doubt anyone is giving that particular issue much thought.

But what is happening to Russian society in the meantime? Russia used to be moving towards some sort of democracy, where political power could (potentially) be transferred to another party through (relatively) peaceful means. In gathering power to himself personally and in weakening governing institutions it would appear to make any type of peaceful transistion of power much more problematic and potentially destabilizing.

There is a theme in work by Russia specialists, area studies and legal folks to focus on the rule of law, and I can't say that I am surprised. It strikes me as a really critical and interesting area of work. Although most Australians or Americans would look completely baffled if you mention "rule of law" to them, it is bedded deep within our societies and souls and is an invisible source of strength for Western societies.

Arguably however, the notion of the rule of law is simply not deeply embedded within the current Russian polity or economy. Putin's government itself seems to consider the law as a cudgel to be used on opponents, rather than something that ought to be obeyed. This deficit, and Putin's apparent complete lack of interest in correcting it, looks to me as a left over cancer from the Communist era that is infecting everything moving forward.

There seems to be a very deep irony at work here. Putin, who seems to be trying with all his might to reforge a Great Russia, is, by the very policies he is putting in place, literally undermining any chance of longer term Russian economic and political success. He might be very popular now, but I wonder how things will look in another ten or twenty years.