Afghanistan

So there is a debate in the US and Europe right now about Afghanistan, and what policy NATO and the UN should pursue. In the US I get the feeling that the debate is somewhat more acute for a number of factors that are interesting in themselves. In any case, much of the debate seems to swirl around whether more US or European forces should be sent into Afghanistan, in the hope that more security can be provided for the civilian population and that the recent Taliban gains can be reversed.

On the other side of the argument are various parties, including some American Republicans and Democrats, along with a fair proportion of the US and European public who are arguing that after eight years enough is enough, and it is time to withdraw.

I feel really torn on this debate, as both sides have strong arguments. Obviously, this is a case of choosing the least bad option, but even viewed from that angle I still can't get my head around a good way to evaluate the choices. Given the size and remoteness of Afghanistan, the forbidding terrain, language and religious barriers, lack of unifying institutions, lack of rule of law, corruption, drug-based economy and a host of other factors, keeping NATO forces in the country seems utterly ludicrous.

Yet, if the NATO forces withdraw, it seems reasonable to believe that the Taleban are highly likely to resume control over the country by force. The obvious worst case, which is by no means a remote possibility, is that a Taliban victory in Afghanistan could potentially destablize Pakistan right next door, and that is a potential nightmare scenario.

I tend to think that keeping such a large troop presence in Afghanistan will have to end at some point, and given that the situation on the ground is not improving, we may as well withdraw sooner than later. But, as I said, I would hate to have to make this particular agonizing call. For what I believe it ultimately means is that we will be consigning the country to the Taliban, which is not a pleasant thought.

But what really gets my goat is when really well informed commentators, including people like Glenn Greenwald, ignore the likely outcome of the withdrawal of NATO forces. I find it highly doubtful that the Afghan people or their leadership will come together and "work it out" as he said in a recent interview on MSNBC. I can see a great many strong reasons to withdraw our troops, but we should at least honestly acknowledge what the likely outcome and cost of that withdrawal will be.